J.Ann Selzer
Public opinion polling has been my life’s work. I collected my first research data when I was a freshman in college, not counting a neighborhood survey I took when I was 5 years old. I was always fascinated by what a person could learn from a scientific sample of a meaningful universe.
Beyond election polling, my favorite projects involved helping clients learn something they didn’t know in order to help them evaluate options for their business, institution, or cause. This work may well continue, but I knew a few years ago that the election portion of my career was coming to an end.
Over a year ago, I informed the Register that I would not be renewing upon the expiration of my 2024 contract with the latest election poll as I transitioned to other projects and opportunities.
Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It is ironic that it is quite the opposite. I am proud of the work I have done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great customers and were happy with my work.
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There were shocking polls for everyone, of course. In the end, my results looked good. More than 30 years of surveys have led to an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s Analysis of Pollster Accuracy History. I got this rating in Silver’s first list and my rating has never gone down. Perhaps this history of accuracy has made the outlier position too comfortable.
Polling is a science of estimation, and science has the power to periodically humiliate the scientist. So I am honored, but always ready to learn from unexpected discoveries.
My work will continue for current clients and for future clients. Furthermore, I am thinking about how to put other talents to the service of new clients.
My integrity means a lot to me. For those who have questioned it, there are probably no words to dissuade them. For those who know me best, I appreciate the notes of support and calls that remind me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was the commitment to truth and accuracy, both in my professional and personal relationships.
It is part of my DNA and I intend to protect and preserve this heart within me.
J. Ann Selzer runs Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines. She first worked with the Iowa Poll in 1987 as a member of the Des Moines Register, then started her own company and has run the Iowa Poll on a contract basis since 1997.
This story has been updated to add a video.