Does Vlad disagree with Donald? It certainly looks like it.
A few days ago, the Russian prime-time show “60 Minutes” congratulated Melania Trump on her husband’s election victory in on-air display a handful of nude photographs of the future first lady that first appeared in GQ magazine in 2000.
President-elect Trump may or may not have found these photographs offensive, but he was likely miffed by their appearance in Putin’s propaganda media. Make no mistake, it was Putin, not the program obnoxious hosts Yevgeny Popov and Olga Skabeevawho decided to show the photos. The fact that both were visibly amused only highlighted how the photos were meant to embarrass, not celebrate.
It’s even worse. Not only did Putin show the photos, he did so before officially congratulating Trump on his victory, while denying the veracity of the Washington Post report that he spoke with Trump by phone.
None of this is by chance. Putin is obviously sending some sort of message. But what and to whom? Several possibilities come to mind.
Putin may be implying that he has an embarrassing “kompromat” on him. Rumors of such compromising documents have circulated since Trump’s first presidency, although they have not been substantiated. If true, Putin could warn Trump not to go too far with his peace plans.
It may also be that Putin is playing hardball, especially considering his late congratulations and refusal of the phone call. In this scenario, which does not contradict the first, Putin could tell Trump that he does not need him or the United States to start negotiations, and that he will end the war on his own. Ukraine. In other words, Putin is telling Trump to stay out of his business.
Finally, it is possible that Putin’s target audience is Russian – both the masses and the elites. As a result, Putin is completely in charge, while Trump is the cuckolded husband who can’t behave like a tough Russian, a “moujik”, and keep his wife under control. Many average Russians will probably laugh along with Skabeeva and wonder how Trump and his crazy Americans can possibly outwit their genius leader. In contrast, Russian elites will be hurt by Trump’s possible anger, but could see through Putin’s transparent attempt to strengthen his position by making Trump appear weak.
Whichever interpretation is correct – and they all could be – the fact is that Putin really has nothing to brag about. His games with the Trumps are just games, revealing weakness and failure.
Do serious leaders really resort to publishing nude photographs of their interlocutors’ wives? Do serious people really think that such vapid displays can intimidate their opponents? Can they really not believe that such cheap tricks can only have the effect of making them look ridiculous?
We do not know how much Putin knows about the real conditions on the front in Ukraine. Does he know that more than 700,000 Russians were killed or wounded? Does he know that around 1,500 soldiers die or are injured every day? His bizarre claim at the recent Valdai conference that Russia surrounded thousands of Ukrainians in Kursk province suggests he is completely out of touch with the reality on the front – or that he is simply lying.
Putin probably knows that his own officials are publicly concerned about the unsustainability of his economic policies, but then how can we be sure that he is not protected against bad news? Subordinates everywhere always tell autocrats what they want to hear. For all we know, Putin may be living in blissful ignorance.
The important thing is that whether or not he knows the true situation in Ukraine, Russia and on the front, Russia is losing the war and its hand in the upcoming negotiations will therefore be weak. Russia’s human losses are unsustainable, unless North Korea’s Kim Jong Un decides to transport his entire army to Russia. Russia’s recent territorial gains, bizarrely described as large or strategic by gullible Western commentators, represent less than 0.5 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
Putin will bluster and bluff, of course, but he won’t be able to make demands if the Americans and Ukrainians know how weak his hand is. Ukrainians know this. The question is: Trump?
Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark. A specialist in Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, as well as nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 non-fiction works, as well as “Imperial purposes: The Decay, Collapse and Rebirth of Empires” and “Why empires reappear: Imperial collapse and imperial rebirth in comparative perspective.
Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports and streaming videos, visit The Hill.