Donald Trump’s second term will not only reshape American politics, it will fundamentally transform geopolitics. Embracing protectionism, isolationism and nationalism, he intends to freeze multilateralism and redirect American resources towards domestic priorities. If his first term is any guide, the consequences will be predictable.
Europe may be forced into closer relations with China, unable to antagonize both powers. The European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen will struggle to continue aligning itself with US policy, especially if Trump’s far-right allies gain influence in European capitals.
Nationalism is the driving force behind Trump’s military and economic policies, prioritizing America over global alliances. By concentrating resources domestically, it reduces the likelihood of conflict but risks marginalizing regions like the Indo-Pacific.