BANGKOK (AP) — Whether left or right, regardless of the length of their terms in office, sitting governments around the world have been defeated this year by disaffected voters in what is known as the “super year” of elections.
that of Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election It’s just the latest in a long string of losses for incumbent parties in 2024, with voters from some 70 countries representing about half the world’s population heading to the polls.
The issues driving voter discontent are wide-ranging, although there has been almost universal unease since the COVID-19 pandemic, as individuals and businesses struggle to get back on their feet in the face of price stubbornly high rates, cash-strapped governments and a surge in migration.
“There is a general sense of frustration with political elites as out of touch that cuts across ideological lines,” said Richard Wike, director of global attitudes research at Pew Research. Center.
He noted that a Pew survey in 24 countries found that the appeal of democracy itself declined as voters reported increasing economic distress and a sense that no political faction truly represented them.
“There are many factors behind this,” Wike said, “but certainly feelings about the economy and inflation are a big factor.”
Since the pandemic hit in 2020, incumbents have been voted out of office in 40 out of 54 elections in Western democracies, said Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University, revealing “a huge disadvantage for incumbents.”
In Britain, the center-right Conservatives recorded their worst result since 1832 in July electionwhich brought the center-left Labor Party back to power after 14 years.
But just across the Channel, the the far right shook the ruling parties of France and Germany, the largest and most powerful members of the European Union, in June elections for the European Union parliament. bloc of 27 nations.
The results prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to convene a parliamentary election in the hope of stemming a far-right surge in his country. The anti-immigration Rassemblement National party won the first round, but alliances and tactical voting relegated it to third place in the second round, produce a fragile government at the top of a a divided legislature.
In Asia, a group of South Korean liberal opposition parties, led by the Democratic Party, overturned the decision Conservative People’s Power Party during the April legislative elections.
Meanwhile, India’s Narendra Modi was expected to easily win a third consecutive term in June, but voters instead turned en masse from his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, which cost him his majority in parliamenteven if he was able to stay in power with the help of his allies.
Likewise, Japanese voters in October punished the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed the country almost continuously since 1955.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will remain in power, but the larger-than-expected defeat ended the LDP’s unilateral rule, giving the opposition a chance to achieve policy changes that conservatives have long opposed.
“If you asked me to explain Japan in a vacuum, it wouldn’t be too difficult,” said Paul Nadeau, an adjunct assistant professor at Temple University’s Japan campus in Tokyo.
“Voters were punishing a ruling party for a corruption scandal, which gave them the opportunity to express many more frustrations than they already had. »
However, on a global scale, it is more difficult to draw conclusions.
“This is pretty consistent across different situations, different countries, different elections — incumbents have a crack in their shins,” he said. “And I don’t have any overarching explanations for why.”
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said inflation was one of the main drivers of “the biggest wave of anti-incumbency voting ever seen” – although the reasons behind this reaction can also be “broader and more diffuse”.
“This could be directly linked to the long-term effects of the COVID pandemic – a large wave of health problems, disrupted education, disrupted work experiences, etc. making people less happy everywhere, and they attack governments. » he said.
“A sort of long electoral COVID. »
In South Africa, high unemployment and inequality have contributed to dramatic loss of support for the African National Congress, which has governed for three decades since the end of apartheid system of white minority domination. The party formerly led by Nelson Mandela lost its parliamentary majority in May elections and was forced to form a coalition with opposition parties.
Other elections in Africa have presented a mixed picture, said Alex Vines, director of the Africa program at international affairs think tank Chatham House, partly clouded by countries led by authoritarian leaders whose re-election is in no doubt. like long-time Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who received 99% of the vote.
However, in African countries with strong democratic institutions, the tendency to punish those in power remains the same, Vines said.
“Countries with stronger institutions – South Africa, Senegal, Botswana – have seen either a government of national unity or a change in governing party,” he said.
In Botswana, voters unexpectedly ousted a party that had governed for 58 years since independence from Britain. October election.
Vines said that across the continent, “you now have this electorate who have no memory of decolonization or the end of apartheid and therefore have different priorities, who also feel the pressures of the cost of life “.
In Latin America, a major country stands out for its resistance to the anti-state wave: Mexico.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, limited to a single term, chose Claudia Sheinbaum, a member of his party, to succeed him. Sheinbaum easily won the presidency during the June elections.
Wike noted that Mexico is one of the few countries in Pew’s survey where voters said they were satisfied with the economic situation.
Some newcomers to power have already found that the honeymoon following their victories was short, as people quickly turned against them.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has seen its popularity plummet because of a jaded electorate that wants lower prices and better public services – but is deeply skeptical of politicians’ intent and ability to make change.
Ford, of the University of Manchester, said it was a problem for democracy when voters, whose job it is to hold governments to account, are so quick to pass judgment.
“If voters are the electoral equivalent of a hanging judge, throwing politicians to the gallows, whether guilty or innocent, then what incentive are governments to try? he asked. “Angels and demons are cast out the same way, but being an angel is more difficult.”
Trump first came to power as a challenger in the 2016 election, then lost as an incumbent president in the 2020 election to Joe Biden. This year, he defeated Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, who intervened late in the race when the president unexpectedly dropped out.
Trump’s victory is one of the most notable triumphs of the conservative populist movement. But another icon of the cause, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, saw his own party suffer its worst performance for decades during this year’s European elections, demonstrating that no movement is safe from backlash.
Nadeau, of Temple University, suggested that perhaps analysts had already misunderstood global electoral trends – analyzing them as ideological shifts – “when in fact it was an anti-incumbency mood.” .
“Maybe he’s always been anti-incumbent, and we’ve just misdiagnosed it,” he said.
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Lawless reported from London and Riccardi from Denver, Colorado.