When people imagine the 2028 presidential election, one of the most exciting matchups to think about is Donald Trump against Gavin Newsom. Even though current law says a president can only serve two terms, many Americans still talk about Trump as if he could find a way back onto the ballot. His presence in politics has remained strong long after his terms in office, and that alone shows how powerful his influence still is.
Donald Trump would enter the race with an enormous advantage: his name recognition. Almost every American knows who he is, and millions of voters remain loyal to him. His rallies continue to draw large crowds, his social media posts still dominate headlines, and he has proven again and again that he can set the tone of the national conversation. For a candidate, that kind of influence is priceless. Newsom, while popular in California, doesn’t yet have the same national following or charisma that Trump commands. Many voters outside of the West Coast still see him as untested on the larger stage.
Another factor that leans in Trump’s favor is his ability to energize voters who don’t always participate in elections. In both 2016 and 2020, he brought new groups of people into the political process, and many of them remain deeply loyal. If he could do that again in 2028, it would give him a strong foundation. Newsom, on the other hand, would have to work hard to connect with voters in middle America, where Trump’s message has often resonated most strongly. While Newsom’s support among Democrats has been growing, he would face challenges reaching independents and conservatives, groups that Trump has already won over in the past.
It’s also worth noting that Trump thrives in debates and direct confrontations. His aggressive style often overwhelms his opponents, and Newsom has not yet faced anyone with Trump’s level of intensity on the national stage. Supporters argue that Trump’s toughness and directness make him look like a fighter, while Newsom’s polished style may not stand up as well in a one-on-one contest.
In the end, if we set aside the constitutional limit and imagine a real Trump-versus-Newsom race in 2028, Trump would likely have the upper hand. His loyal base, his proven ability to dominate media coverage, and his skill at energizing voters would all combine to give him a clear advantage. While Newsom is rising in popularity and could be a strong candidate, it’s difficult to picture him overcoming Trump’s unmatched presence and established support across much of the country.
So, if these two ever did meet on the ballot, the edge would almost certainly go to Trump.