The emergence of the United States as a clean energy superpower could be stopped in its tracks by Donald Trumpfurther strengthening the power of China’s leadership and starving tens of billions of dollars of investment from other countries, according to a new report.
Trump’s promise to repeal key climate policies enacted during Joe Biden’s presidency threatens to shift $80 billion in investments to other countries and cost the United States up to $50 billion in losses. ‘exports, the analysis revealedceding ground to China and other emerging powers in the race to build electric cars, batteries, solar and wind power for the world.
“The United States will continue to install a certain number of solar panels and wind turbines, but getting rid of these policies would harm its bid for leadership in this new world,” said Bentley Allan, an environmental and policy expert at Johns Hopkins University, who co-authored the new study.
“The energy transition is inevitable and the future prosperity of countries depends on their participation in the clean energy supply chain,” he said. “If we leave the competition, it will be very difficult to come back.
“This was our chance to participate in the clean technology race while everyone else, not just China but South Korea, Nigeria and countries in Europe, are doing the same.”
Under Biden, the United States has legislated the Chips Act, the bipartisan Infrastructure Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, all aimed to varying degrees at addressing the climate crisis while strengthening industry American manufacturer.
The IRA alone, with its major clean energy incentives, is credited with helping to create around 300,000 new jobs, with the the vast majority of the $150 billion in new manufacturing investment is aimed at Republican-controlled districts.
Trump, however, called the spending wasteful and promised to erase it. “I will immediately put an end to this new green scam,” declared the president-elect shortly before his electoral victory. “It will be such an honor. The biggest scam in the history of any country.
Doing so could prove politically fraught, even with Republican control of Congress, because of the glut of new jobs and factories in conservative-leaning areas. But if Trump’s plan were to prevail, planned U.S. manufacturing projects would be canceled, according to the new report, leaving U.S. companies dependent on foreign suppliers for their components.
“Without these investments and tax credits, U.S. industry will be hobbled just as it gets started, ceding the ground to others,” the report said.
Exports would also be hit, the analysis predicts, allowing U.S. competitors to capture market share. “These plans suggest a complete misunderstanding of how the global economy works,” Allan said. “If we don’t have a manufacturing base, we’re not going to move forward.”
Trump has spoken of forging “American energy dominance” based entirely on fossil fuels, with more oil and gas drilling coupled with a commitment to abandon offshore wind projects and an end to the “madness” of subsidies for electric cars. The president-elect should lead a deep dismantling environmental and climate rules once back at the White House.
These priorities, which come as global oil production reaches its peak forecast and pressure mounts to avoid climate breakdown, could further strengthen China’s position. direction in the production of clean energy.
“China already feels perplexed and skeptical about the inflation reduction law,” said Li Shuo, a climate expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Add Trump and you deepen Chinese skepticism. It’s a political boom and bust. When it comes to selling clean energy in third-country markets, China doesn’t sweat at all.”
But even Trump’s agenda is not expected to completely halt clean energy’s momentum. Renewable energy is now economically attractive and is expected to continue to grow, albeit more irregularly. Solar, which has collapsed by 90% in cost over the last decade, has been added to the U.S. grid at a rate three times that of gas capacity last year, for example.
“We will see a big push to increase the supply of fossil fuels from the United States, but most of the drilling is running at full capacity anyway,” said Ely Sandler, a climate finance expert at the Belfer Center in Harvard University.
“It’s very different from demand, which is how electricity is produced, and it generally comes down to the cheapest energy source, which is increasingly renewable. If Donald Trump relaxes permitting regulations, it could even lead to more clean energy coming online.”
At the UN Cop29 negotiations in Azerbaijan, which began on Monday, countries must once again confront a disconcerting shift in the United States’ commitment to tackling the climate crisis. The outgoing Biden administration, which is trying to talk about ongoing US action during the talkshopes his climate policy will have enough clout to survive a Trumpian onslaught.
“What we will see is whether we have reached escape velocity or not and how quickly the boosters are about to fall,” Ali Zaidi, Biden’s top climate adviser, said at the summit. Cop.