Research briefing
| November 13, 2024
What you will learn:
- The election of Donald Trump will affect global construction activity through fiscal stimulus, reduced immigration, increased tariffs and policy decisions. Our basic macroeconomic vision has shifted to our “Trump Limited” Scenarioalthough our scenario of a “full-fledged Trump” remains a possibility if specific criteria are met.
- Fiscal expansion in the United States is expected to support privately financed construction activity in the near term, but will lead to slower monetary easing in 2026. Immigration reductions, however, will reduce housing demand in the long term and are likely to exacerbate labor shortages in the U.S. construction sector. .
- The impact of the tariffs is unclear. We expect them to boost manufacturing and warehousing investments in ASEAN countries, while their impact in the United States depends on the extent of tariff retaliation measures imposed by other countries. country. China could continue to redirect US-bound exports to other countries – but there could be a reduction in Belt and Road projects.
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