Ukraine and the rest of Europe followed with concern the results of the November 6 US presidential election, which ultimately declared Donald Trump and JD Vance as the winners, with the Republican Party also securing majorities in the House and the Senate. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly called the president-elect to offer congratulations and express interest in strengthening ties.
But what does a Trump-Vance administration mean for Europe and Ukraine? Reviewing past actions and campaign statements can provide insight.
During his 2016-2020 term, Trump position towards NATO and Ukraine has often raised eyebrows. He called NATO “obsolete” and argued that the United States should not be the world’s police force. Trump withdrew U.S. troops from Europe and opposed the expansion of the U.S. military presence there. He has refused to fully endorse NATO’s Article 5, which commits its members to collective defense, and former aides have reported that Trump even considered withdrawing from the alliance.
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Trump’s views on Ukraine also emerged during the 2016 election, when he accused Ukraine of interfering in the US election against him – a claim later refuted by the FBI. Then, in 2019, he withheld defensive assistance to Ukraine and asked Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his family. The United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) later ruled that the withholding of aid passed by Congress was illegal. The House of Representatives impeached Trump, but the Senate ultimately acquitted him.
After losing the 2020 election, Trump promised a political comeback and ultimately secured the Republican nomination in 2024. During his campaign, Trump’s positions on NATO and Ukraine remained unchanged – and even hardened.
At a recent rally, Trump reiterated that NATO members must meet the 2% threshold for defense spending, saying he would not protect allies who failed to do so. “You don’t pay your bills, you don’t get any protection,” he said. Trump suggested he would leave Russia “do what they want” if a country is late in its payments.
Many former Trump-Pence administration officials believe Trump will likely withdraw from NATO, endangering European security.
Regarding Ukraine, Trump pledged to end the war in one day by forcing Ukrainian officials to negotiate with Russia and cede territory. He said U.S. aid to Ukraine was excessive and called for cuts. Now that the election is behind him, Trump is expected to push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that would likely reduce U.S. support. Trump also said he would seek to delay Ukraine’s application for NATO membership.
Vance shares Trump’s critical opinions on NATO and Ukraine. He argued that European countries should manage their own security issues without U.S. involvement. Vance, who has opposed every bill supporting Ukraine since the Russian invasion, said: “don’t really care» about Ukraine and that the United States should stop its aid. He also opposes Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO, saying it should remain neutral.
With Republicans in control of Congress, Trump and Vance will find support for their isolationist policies. House Speaker Mike Johnson, for example, called on Europe to take more responsibility for its own security and suggested that NATO allies increase their defense spending. Johnson also supports Trump’s forced peace plan for Ukraine, saying he “has no appetite for more funding for Ukraine» and saying he is convinced that Trump can end the war by pushing for negotiations with Russia.
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Even though most Senate Republicans support NATO and aid to Ukraine, their position could conflict with the agenda of Trump, Vance and Johnson. These differences could lead to friction between the White House, the House and the Senate.
The Trump-Vance administration is poised to reduce U.S. involvement in NATO and foreign conflicts. Trump, Vance and Johnson say the United States has done enough for Ukraine and Europe. They intend to work with Russia on a peace deal that could force Ukraine to adopt neutrality and renounce its NATO membership.
In other words, Europe and Ukraine may soon find themselves without American support. In the face of Russian aggression alone, European nations and Ukraine will need to strengthen their cooperation and resilience in an increasingly uncertain future. Only time will tell if they will succeed.